Why The Unpredictability Is Good For Formula One

In the last couple of weeks many people have touched on the inability of insiders and fans to predict just who would win races this season. Early predictions about McLaren dominance or Ferrari failure have largely failed to appear. Instead we have one of the closest seasons in recent memory, if your recent memory forgets about the start of the 2010 season.

Going into 2010 we had five world champions on the grid for the first time. Red Bull had just recently entered the top of the pack the previous year with the tandem of Webber and Vettel. McLaren had two powerhouse drivers in Hamilton and Button. Ferrari had the impressive combination of Alonso and Massa. Mercedes had just come off a dominating performance as Brawn and saw the return of Michael Schumacher alongside Nico Rosberg. In a way not much has changed since then, and even this seasons results bear this out.

That season started with five different drivers winning the first seven races, including four of the first five. While there were no surprise victories like Pastor Maldonado winning in Spain this year, there was no less a sense of unpredictability. And for anyone surprised by Nico Rosberg winning in China, you must not be watching enough F1. Yet, even Maldonado winning in Spain was less of a surprise if you take a close look. The Williams car is obviously better in pace this year than last, and Maldonado would have taken an impressive sixth had he not made a mistake in Australia. He took second in qual (no one can argue it was just the tires with that) and through good driving and good strategy he got his win. If anything the unpredictability comes only from commentators not being able to get their heads around one thing: the field is packed full of good talent and good cars.

On top of all this, many would say we're ready for a season like this after 2009 and 2011. Those seasons saw such dominance that it was more a race for second than for first. A season like 2010 brings more excitement to the track and to the screen each week. It is not that we are expecting a surprise result each week, but there is so much talent to go around that it is inevitable to get a large number of winners. Six former world champions sit on the grid at each race and there are ten former race winners as well (and five of those champions sit in the top seven of points). It would be very unsurprising in the least to see Hamilton, Schumacher, or Raikkonen (all former champions) to get their first wins of the season in the next couple of races. Should we really be surprised  that almost all the winners have been there before; that they are drivers who have reached the pinnacle of motorsport or have spent years winning races before now?

As a fan of Formula One and someone who is anxiously waiting for the return of the United States Grand Prix in November the "unpredictability" of this season has me just wanting more. I'm hoping for a season like 2010 that goes into the final races with six or seven drivers fighting to be champion. I'm hoping that maybe I'll show up at the USGP and get to see not only a great battle between champions on track, but to know that my race actually matters. It is seasons like this, with the field packed with talent and the cars ever closer in performance that draws me to the sport. 2011 may have been exciting for Red Bull fans, but 2012 will be exciting for all fans. I see the start to this season as less about it being unpredictable and more about it being exactly what I was hoping for. So why don't we make it seven for seven in Montreal, eh boys?

Race Recap: To Rain or Not to Rain

Six for Six. For most people that would sound as though the 2012 season had become a boring one, dominated by just a single driver in its first six races. Fortunately for fans, that six for six represents the six different drivers to win the first six races after Mark Webber took the victory from pole for Red Bull. At times it appeared that we may get a repeat driver in Vettel, the "rain" simply wouldn't let that happen.

Photo by Patrice Coppee/AFP/Getty Images

If there is one thing to take away from the race, it is not how Monaco reduces the gap between cars and more about the absolute panic from the prospect of rain. From the original forecasts this weekend everyone knew rain was a possibility. Teams and drivers were prepared for it and yet it still seemed to catch everyone unaware. The teams all pushed their drivers to take the tires as long as they could, the ever looming spectre of rain looming over them. Lap 15, Lap 21, Lap 25, Lap 34... the reports continually changed and never came true. Pit stops came and went as if the rain never mattered, and maybe it was just a ploy of the teams to push their drivers into one-stop races. Red Bull at one point considered putting Vettel on intermediate tires so they would be prepared when the rain came.

Yet after all the buildup it seemed as though it never would. Vettel's stop came and went, and Monaco become one of the most exciting parades in the world. Webber led the likes of Rosberg, Alonso, Vettel (all winners), Hamilton and Massa around the tight streets of Monaco. It proved to be one of the most exciting battles of the season to date, not because of the passing it provided, but the sheer closeness of the drivers. It looked as though the true battle would not be with the elements but between driver. And then, with the laps ticking to a close, the skies decided to open up and give us a scare. The track got slick, the parade became a frantic attempt to not meet Mr. Armco, and it appeared the prophecy of weather may come true.

Jean-Eric Vergne and Toro Rosso took the bait. They gave up 7th place in a grasp for glory on a wettening track. It proved to be the wrong call. Webber and his parade reconquered the streets of Monaco, and the weather gave way to the craziness the Formula One season. In a way Monaco represents everything that Formula One should be and this race represented everything that this season is.

Winners: Red Bull were at the top of their game on race day. As the only team to score two wins so far this season, they hold an advantage no other team currently possesses. Webber and Vettel sit even in the points and this season has much of the same feel that 2010 had. If Red Bull's drivers can continue their form in Canada, this season could become theirs even if Webber or Vettel don't take the checkered flag.

Losers: Roman Grosjean and Michael Schumacher are both losers after Monaco. Neither has fulfilled the potential their teams have provided them and both posted yet another DNF. While Grosjean's DNF was very much his fault, Schumacher again became victim of mechanical failure. His grid penalty may or may not have played a part, but Schumacher still failed to achieve anything close to his pole achievement.

Look Ahead: Montreal is the next stop and its Wall of Champions is hungry. With six different former champions and five former winners (all champions) the race will be a true battle. Schumacher has dominated Canada in his career and if he can take his form from Monaco qualifying to Montreal race he could finally post a victory. Lotus have also performed exceptional on tracks with fast straights and I'd put my money that Kimi Raikkonen could parlay that into his first victory of the season. Red Bull need a good performance to put distance between them and the rest making Canada a key battle in the race for the title.

Race Recap: Vettel Shows Resurgence

Bahrain again proved why it gives fans some of the most exciting and boring racing of the season. Though there were some exciting passes and battles, it is still very much another cookie cutter Tilke track with long straights ending in tight hairpins. It provided us the same strategy and battles that we witnessed already this season in China, and which we will witness over and over again this season. Fortunately all of the action in Bahrain occurred on track and not off with no hint of protest or disturbance of the race.

Vettel celebrates his victory with Raikkonen
Photo by Reuters

For the first time since 2003 we have four different winners of the first four grand prix. Fans could only hope that we get another battle like the 2010 championship fight, especially here in the United States with our Grand Prix being the penultimate race. It was a dominant drive by Sebastian Vettel which truly started with Q3 and just extended into the race on Sunday. Though Grosjean and then Raikkonen challenged him until the final stint Vettel never seemed phased and held his cool to claim the first win of the season. 

Mark Webber drove a quiet race and brought his Red Bull home in its usual fourth place this season. Rosberg followed up his win with a very respectable fifth place finish, though it was not a spectacular run by any means. The only points scoring driver to stick with a two-stop strategy, Paul di Resta, pulled home the Force India in sixth place which is a great finish for that team. Ferrari had both drivers in the points for the first time this season. Michael Schumacher earned another point for himself this season, though one can not underestimate the twelve positions he had to make up during the race to gain that tenth place.

Now for the Winners, Losers and a Look Ahead

Winners: Kimi Raikkonen and Lotus. While Vettel and Red Bull stole the show during qualifying, it was the outstanding performance by Raikkonen and his Lotus teammate Grosjean which gave the best performance during the race. The extremely tight battle between Raikkonen and Vettel proved the some of the best racing so far this season. The advantage of fresh option tires for the race provided just the push that Raikkonen needed to get through the field early and allow their three-stop strategy to work. A double podium for Lotus is an absolutely fantastic finish for them and clearly places them into the top teams this season.

Losers: Lewis Hamilton and the McLaren pit crew. For the third race of the season Hamilton was cost points not through poor driving but mistakes by his crew. Here in Bahrain over 17 seconds were lost in the pits, a loss which could have cost him up to xx points. Though Button had no issues pitting today, one could wonder just what is going on with Hamilton's car. McLaren have plenty of time to straighten out their issues before Spain but if they want to keep pace with Red Bull and now Lotus they will need to step up their game.

Look Ahead: Spanish Grand Prix. The teams will get to return home again and with a three week gap until Spain all will have ample chances to improve their cars. McLaren has some ground to make up to Red Bull in race pace and I'd expect them to fully rectify their pit issues during the break. Lotus have given themselves quite a bit to build on heading into the European leg of the calendar and I'd expect that Kimi Raikkonen could become the fifth different winner in as many races; the first time since 1983 that has happened. Ferrari and Mercedes both need to make strides or else they will be left behind by the top three and caught by the likes of Sauber and Williams.

Next week I'll take a look at the progression of the Circuit of the Americas as well as a bit of coverage of the WTCC races in Slovakia and Hungary in the next two weekends.