Wednesday, May 30, 2012

Why The Unpredictability Is Good For Formula One

In the last couple of weeks many people have touched on the inability of insiders and fans to predict just who would win races this season. Early predictions about McLaren dominance or Ferrari failure have largely failed to appear. Instead we have one of the closest seasons in recent memory, if your recent memory forgets about the start of the 2010 season.

Going into 2010 we had five world champions on the grid for the first time. Red Bull had just recently entered the top of the pack the previous year with the tandem of Webber and Vettel. McLaren had two powerhouse drivers in Hamilton and Button. Ferrari had the impressive combination of Alonso and Massa. Mercedes had just come off a dominating performance as Brawn and saw the return of Michael Schumacher alongside Nico Rosberg. In a way not much has changed since then, and even this seasons results bear this out.

That season started with five different drivers winning the first seven races, including four of the first five. While there were no surprise victories like Pastor Maldonado winning in Spain this year, there was no less a sense of unpredictability. And for anyone surprised by Nico Rosberg winning in China, you must not be watching enough F1. Yet, even Maldonado winning in Spain was less of a surprise if you take a close look. The Williams car is obviously better in pace this year than last, and Maldonado would have taken an impressive sixth had he not made a mistake in Australia. He took second in qual (no one can argue it was just the tires with that) and through good driving and good strategy he got his win. If anything the unpredictability comes only from commentators not being able to get their heads around one thing: the field is packed full of good talent and good cars.

On top of all this, many would say we're ready for a season like this after 2009 and 2011. Those seasons saw such dominance that it was more a race for second than for first. A season like 2010 brings more excitement to the track and to the screen each week. It is not that we are expecting a surprise result each week, but there is so much talent to go around that it is inevitable to get a large number of winners. Six former world champions sit on the grid at each race and there are ten former race winners as well (and five of those champions sit in the top seven of points). It would be very unsurprising in the least to see Hamilton, Schumacher, or Raikkonen (all former champions) to get their first wins of the season in the next couple of races. Should we really be surprised  that almost all the winners have been there before; that they are drivers who have reached the pinnacle of motorsport or have spent years winning races before now?

As a fan of Formula One and someone who is anxiously waiting for the return of the United States Grand Prix in November the "unpredictability" of this season has me just wanting more. I'm hoping for a season like 2010 that goes into the final races with six or seven drivers fighting to be champion. I'm hoping that maybe I'll show up at the USGP and get to see not only a great battle between champions on track, but to know that my race actually matters. It is seasons like this, with the field packed with talent and the cars ever closer in performance that draws me to the sport. 2011 may have been exciting for Red Bull fans, but 2012 will be exciting for all fans. I see the start to this season as less about it being unpredictable and more about it being exactly what I was hoping for. So why don't we make it seven for seven in Montreal, eh boys?

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