Why The Unpredictability Is Good For Formula One

In the last couple of weeks many people have touched on the inability of insiders and fans to predict just who would win races this season. Early predictions about McLaren dominance or Ferrari failure have largely failed to appear. Instead we have one of the closest seasons in recent memory, if your recent memory forgets about the start of the 2010 season.

Going into 2010 we had five world champions on the grid for the first time. Red Bull had just recently entered the top of the pack the previous year with the tandem of Webber and Vettel. McLaren had two powerhouse drivers in Hamilton and Button. Ferrari had the impressive combination of Alonso and Massa. Mercedes had just come off a dominating performance as Brawn and saw the return of Michael Schumacher alongside Nico Rosberg. In a way not much has changed since then, and even this seasons results bear this out.

That season started with five different drivers winning the first seven races, including four of the first five. While there were no surprise victories like Pastor Maldonado winning in Spain this year, there was no less a sense of unpredictability. And for anyone surprised by Nico Rosberg winning in China, you must not be watching enough F1. Yet, even Maldonado winning in Spain was less of a surprise if you take a close look. The Williams car is obviously better in pace this year than last, and Maldonado would have taken an impressive sixth had he not made a mistake in Australia. He took second in qual (no one can argue it was just the tires with that) and through good driving and good strategy he got his win. If anything the unpredictability comes only from commentators not being able to get their heads around one thing: the field is packed full of good talent and good cars.

On top of all this, many would say we're ready for a season like this after 2009 and 2011. Those seasons saw such dominance that it was more a race for second than for first. A season like 2010 brings more excitement to the track and to the screen each week. It is not that we are expecting a surprise result each week, but there is so much talent to go around that it is inevitable to get a large number of winners. Six former world champions sit on the grid at each race and there are ten former race winners as well (and five of those champions sit in the top seven of points). It would be very unsurprising in the least to see Hamilton, Schumacher, or Raikkonen (all former champions) to get their first wins of the season in the next couple of races. Should we really be surprised  that almost all the winners have been there before; that they are drivers who have reached the pinnacle of motorsport or have spent years winning races before now?

As a fan of Formula One and someone who is anxiously waiting for the return of the United States Grand Prix in November the "unpredictability" of this season has me just wanting more. I'm hoping for a season like 2010 that goes into the final races with six or seven drivers fighting to be champion. I'm hoping that maybe I'll show up at the USGP and get to see not only a great battle between champions on track, but to know that my race actually matters. It is seasons like this, with the field packed with talent and the cars ever closer in performance that draws me to the sport. 2011 may have been exciting for Red Bull fans, but 2012 will be exciting for all fans. I see the start to this season as less about it being unpredictable and more about it being exactly what I was hoping for. So why don't we make it seven for seven in Montreal, eh boys?

Race Recap: To Rain or Not to Rain

Six for Six. For most people that would sound as though the 2012 season had become a boring one, dominated by just a single driver in its first six races. Fortunately for fans, that six for six represents the six different drivers to win the first six races after Mark Webber took the victory from pole for Red Bull. At times it appeared that we may get a repeat driver in Vettel, the "rain" simply wouldn't let that happen.

Photo by Patrice Coppee/AFP/Getty Images

If there is one thing to take away from the race, it is not how Monaco reduces the gap between cars and more about the absolute panic from the prospect of rain. From the original forecasts this weekend everyone knew rain was a possibility. Teams and drivers were prepared for it and yet it still seemed to catch everyone unaware. The teams all pushed their drivers to take the tires as long as they could, the ever looming spectre of rain looming over them. Lap 15, Lap 21, Lap 25, Lap 34... the reports continually changed and never came true. Pit stops came and went as if the rain never mattered, and maybe it was just a ploy of the teams to push their drivers into one-stop races. Red Bull at one point considered putting Vettel on intermediate tires so they would be prepared when the rain came.

Yet after all the buildup it seemed as though it never would. Vettel's stop came and went, and Monaco become one of the most exciting parades in the world. Webber led the likes of Rosberg, Alonso, Vettel (all winners), Hamilton and Massa around the tight streets of Monaco. It proved to be one of the most exciting battles of the season to date, not because of the passing it provided, but the sheer closeness of the drivers. It looked as though the true battle would not be with the elements but between driver. And then, with the laps ticking to a close, the skies decided to open up and give us a scare. The track got slick, the parade became a frantic attempt to not meet Mr. Armco, and it appeared the prophecy of weather may come true.

Jean-Eric Vergne and Toro Rosso took the bait. They gave up 7th place in a grasp for glory on a wettening track. It proved to be the wrong call. Webber and his parade reconquered the streets of Monaco, and the weather gave way to the craziness the Formula One season. In a way Monaco represents everything that Formula One should be and this race represented everything that this season is.

Winners: Red Bull were at the top of their game on race day. As the only team to score two wins so far this season, they hold an advantage no other team currently possesses. Webber and Vettel sit even in the points and this season has much of the same feel that 2010 had. If Red Bull's drivers can continue their form in Canada, this season could become theirs even if Webber or Vettel don't take the checkered flag.

Losers: Roman Grosjean and Michael Schumacher are both losers after Monaco. Neither has fulfilled the potential their teams have provided them and both posted yet another DNF. While Grosjean's DNF was very much his fault, Schumacher again became victim of mechanical failure. His grid penalty may or may not have played a part, but Schumacher still failed to achieve anything close to his pole achievement.

Look Ahead: Montreal is the next stop and its Wall of Champions is hungry. With six different former champions and five former winners (all champions) the race will be a true battle. Schumacher has dominated Canada in his career and if he can take his form from Monaco qualifying to Montreal race he could finally post a victory. Lotus have also performed exceptional on tracks with fast straights and I'd put my money that Kimi Raikkonen could parlay that into his first victory of the season. Red Bull need a good performance to put distance between them and the rest making Canada a key battle in the race for the title.

Monaco: The Greatest Of Them All

Glitz. Glamour. Glory. It is all of these qualities that the Grand Prix of Monaco possesses. The tightest and "slowest" circuit on the calendar gives a sense of speed not seen elsewhere. Not only must the drivers push their cars and themseleves to the limit, but the limit at Monaco is closer than ever. To almost any driver it is the crowning achievement in their seasons, if not their careers. As Nelson Piquet said "a win here was worth two anywhere else". So what exactly makes a track where overtaking is next to impossible, speeds are highway-esque, and conditions old fashioned the greatest of them all? Its because Monaco embodies everything that Formula One should be; the ultimate test of car and driver skill.

There should be no surprise that the greats have won so many races here. Senna, Hill, Prost, Moss, Stewart and Schumacher have all taken multiple victories here. Each of them drivers capable of putting their immense skill to work to conquer the circuit. So what exactly makes the track so tough to conquer? There are many other street circuits which present similar challenges as Monaco including the tight barriers or the continually evolving track surface. Other tracks present twisting layouts or very slow corners, and there are even more which test a driver's endurance to the limit. Monaco is unique among them, and the greatest of them, by not only mixing all of these factors into a single circuit but doing it among the richness and glamour that is Monaco.

Where there are other street circuits (Valencia and Singapore) none of them give the same sense of speed that one gets from Monaco. The fact that not only are the barriers there to ruin anyones day, but putting so many cars into such a tight space amplifies the speed that much more. Valencia is a terrible track by any means, and it is more street circuit in name only. Singapore is the "Monaco of Asia" yet the track comes off as artificial, the sense of danger and speed deflated. Neither can come close to the skill required to win Monaco.

Although Monaco is the twistiest circuit on the calendar, it also provides much more excitement than any similar circuit. Hungaroring is the slowest non-street circuit along with Yas Marina. Neither produce the excitement that can match Monaco. Even with all the Middle Eastern glamour that come from racing in Abu Dhabi. Even in tests of endurance, only Spa can match Monaco. Yet, while Spa provides drivers with the longest lap on the calendar (over double that at Monaco) it doesn't not require the same constant attention that Monaco simply demands. Even the history of Spa doesn't get the same respect and awe that Monaco generates.

The Grand Prix of Monaco represents everything that Formula One should be. The continually push towards cookie-cutter tracks and boring layouts brings down what F1 should be. Monaco is the history of F1 and without her F1 would never be the same. Few races can claim such a rare title and Monaco is king of them all.

Race Recap: A Season All Mixed Up

Five races. Five different winners. Five different teams. Not since 1983 has a season started like this. With Pastor Maldonado's win in Spain the 2012 season has started off (almost) like no other. Going forward into the  rest of the European season just about any of the five winning teams look set to take their second win of the season. Much like previous races in Spain, starting on pole lead to victory although strategy played a key role for Williams in their victory.

Alonso had a blinding start off the line and beat Maldonado into turn one and held that lead through the first two stints of the race. It was the absolutely charging pace from Lewis Hamilton, at the back of the pack due to penalty, which was the highlight of the first half of the race. Hamilton had to fight through the pack and while it appeared he might be fighting for a podium at some point, but the need to hold onto the tires for a two-stop race pushed him back.

Pastor Maldonado celebrates his first victory
Photo by ALBERT GEA/REUTERS

The real excitement of the race came following the final pit stops. Williams took the risk to bring Maldonado in with 24 laps to go, hoping that the tires could not only last but also not reach the cliff. Alonso and finally Raikkonen pitted with 17 laps remaining. It appeared that Alonso not only had the pace but the tires left to get him past Maldonado but in the last laps he just couldn't keep pace with the Williams. Maldonado managed his tires flawlessly in his final stint and brought home the first victory since another South American won for Williams in 2004. (That driver was Juan Pablo Montoya of Columbia, coincidentally in Brazil) The real shocker was the absolutely blistering pace that Raikkonen showed during the final stint. He was able to put at least one second per lap on the leaders and it could be asked that had he pitted a lap earlier if he could have passed a slowing Alonso.

Winners: Lotus has again shown that, as a team, they are going to be the ones to beat heading into Europe. Grabbing another podium through Raikkonen, and more points than any other team in the last three races (and by far in the last two races) the team has more momentum than their foes. Though Monaco may not be the best place for the fast cars of Lotus, later races at Montreal, Silverstone and Hockenheim could prove a place for them to gain their first win of the year. Runners-up in this category are obviously Williams who have proven that at least one of their drivers can put them in the mix of things. A Team Championship might be out of the question, but no doubt they can give themselves a shot at a top five.


Losers: Michael Schumacher has posted his third DNF in five races this season. He is not only having the worst start to a season of his career, but it is also in a car which is clearly competitive after a win in China and fantastic qualifying all season. Here in Spain much of the blame could be placed directly on his shoulders, but I hesitate to do so. His collision with Senna, while at first glace appears to be solely Schumacher's fault is at least partly Senna's. The Williams driver moved to the inside and as Schumacher moved to the outside to pass Senna cut back into his line. Schumacher tried to cut back to the inside but the different braking pace on different tires left no room and drew the collision. Schumacher got the penalty for it, but I believe it was wrongfully given. In any case his third DNF gives little hope to him getting a podium or win before his season ends, especially painful as Kimi Raikkonen has earned two podiums in just five races.


Look Ahead: The glitz and glamour of Monaco are on showcase in two weeks. The tight and twisty track will obviously put a premium on qualifying and downforce two areas that Red Bull have excelled at in prior years. With a safety car almost assured of happening tire strategy will likely play a diminished role as teams will get one or two brief respites. I'd lean on McLaren and Mercedes continuing their strong qualifying performances this season and translate those into good race performances.