Bahrain Race Preview

With qualifying done and only the race left to come all of the turmoil and unrest will be overshadowed for at least a few more hours. Fears of additional violence around the track have yet to play out since the incident with Force India and it is extremely unlikely that the race will be disrupted in any way with the tight security around the circuit.

Coming into qualifying today Nico Rosberg appeared to have the pace to duplicate his pole performance in China by leading the time sheets in P2 and P3. Unfortunately for him and teammate Michael Schumacher they couldn't replicate that speed during qualifying. Schumacher even failed to get out of Q1, though that has been attributed more to a failed DRS than lack of speed for the Mercedes squad. Meanwhile, Sebastian Vettel and Red Bull made a strong charge for pole. They appeared to have found their old form again in Bahrain while McLaren are not far off of the lead pace.

With the high heat in Bahrain it will be interesting to see just how well the tires hold up. Many of the lower qualifiers will have ample options available to them in strategy. With teams battling the heat and only around a second difference between the soft and medium tire the two and three stop strategies we witnessed in China will be in play again. It will be especially interesting to see what strategy Schumacher and Raikkonen attempt with both of their team mates starting on soft tires from Q3. I'd expect to see both of them attempt two-stop strategies starting on the medium tire and saving the soft tires for the final stint when they will be able to squeeze the most life from them.

Up at the front of the field it will be a fantastic start. With Vettel, Hamilton, Webber and Button all within three-tenths during qualifying and all being fantastic off the line in recent weeks. The winner into turn one may very well be the victor in this race, especially with the difficult passing zones and a DRS zone which is slightly shorter than the one at Shanghai. With the very tight turn one, high tire degradation (and thus more debris off line), and less room to recover from bad braking it will be difficult to make good use of the DRS zone to pass. The race would have better served with two linked DRS zones similar to Montreal last year, allowing drivers to close down the gap in the first (shorter) zone and make the pass down the longer second zone.

While Daniel Riccardo had a fantastic qualifying for Toro Rosso, they should temper their enthusiasm. They have used all three of their option tires, and they will almost certainly not be able to match the race pace of the top teams. Smart tire and pit strategy will be key for them to turn in a points performance. Other drivers to watch out for would be Sergio Perez and Paul di Resta. Both have turned in top ten performances and both cars are at the top of the speed trap this week a key statistic at a track like Bahrain.

China Recap: Rosberg Finally Victorius

The Chinese Grand Prix once again gave Formula One fans a great race. Like in so many other races the crucial aspect was not flat out speed, but tire management and pit performance. Nico Rosberg and Mercedes executed both of these flawlessly during the race (with the exception of Schumacher's first pit) and finally got both Mercedes and Rosberg a victory. Coming in his 111th race, the win was much deserved for Rosberg who combined not only a blistering qualifying lap to take pole but also a beautifully driven race where he managed his tire wear and was able to pull of the two-stop race that caught Sebastian Vettel out last year here. Many could point to Button's final stop as helping Rosberg win, but Formula One is more than just a single driver sport and the pit crews often are the reason for victory or defeat.

Nico Rosburg Celebrates Victory with his Crew
Photo by Reuters

The true battle during the race, however, was the fantastic fight for the podium in the closing laps. Fillipe Massa, on his own two-stop strategy, created a long que of cars before he finally came in. The fights between Raikkonen, Vettel, Button, Hamilton, Alonso and Webber were clearly the highlight. Raikkonen clearly showed just what happens when the tires "fall off the cliff" as he lost eight places in a single lap and eventually finished way down in 14th. The fantastic pack racing is not something that Formula One fans get to see every race, and China highlighted just how exciting it can be. The different tire strategies managed to put all those cars together and give us the best battle for position we have seen so far this year. The fight between Webber and Vettel on the final two laps clearly show that while Vettel may be reigning champion, Webber still has a great deal of talent and fight left in him. There were also some great passes and individual fights due to the long final straight in China. Perez and Kobayashi almost got into each other on the back straight during one of their fights. Button made a fantastic move to get past Vettel going into Turn 14. Hamilton took advantage of the hard breaking into Turn 6 and made a number of drivers pay with passes up the inside. Even the Turn 1-3 complex offered great side-by-side action during the race.

Looking forward from China to Bahrain we get another track where tire management and speed will be key. Mercedes clearly showed that their wing was the clear way forward for pace this season. It was strongly highlighted on the massively long back straight at China, and Bahrain will be no different. The key for Mercedes going forward is to really replicate what they had here in China. Not every track will give them this advantage and the other teams will soon catch up as well, but the tracks which do provide them this platform should see them right up front. McLaren have clearly been the lead team this year and with Hamilton and Button 1-2 in the points they should have very few issues going forward. Red Bull have ground to make up, but they are still well within the fight for the top. Ferrari have a decidedly different future than the other top teams and they won't remain in the fight long living off just points from Alonso. Sauber, Lotus and Williams all have had fantastic performances this season and will eagerly be fighting to replace Ferrari in the top group.

Later this week we will have a greater preview of Bahrain as well as a look forward to the European leg of the Championship fight.

Ferrari: Fluke or Future?

Ferrari Driver Fernando Alonso at the 2012 Malaysian Grand Prix
Photo by ROSLAN RAHMAN/AFP/Getty Images

     With the surprising victory of Ferrari driver Fernando Alsono at the rain-soaked Malaysian Grand Prix, many have begun to wonder if we could soon see more of the boys in red at the front. Was this race just a fluke due to crazy weather or is this the start of a resurgence? Can Alsono push the car to achieve more than any one thinks possible? While I don't doubt Alonso's skill as a driver, I do seriously doubt the ability of the Ferrari to drive up front.
   
     The biggest factor holding back the car is the terrible qualifying positions relative to their rivals. Although we are only two races into this young season, Ferrari is one for four getting drivers into Q3 (Alonso at Malaysia) while their rivals at Red Bull, Mercedes and McLaren are four for four (with McLaren locking out the front row in each race). Lotus has almost matched the top three at going three for four, and even the mid-pack is doing as well as Ferrari. Poor qualifying usually translates into being in a poor position during the race and poor results. The changing conditions in Malaysia obviously mixes things up quite a bit, but even in these conditions the Ferrari was no match even for the Sauber of Sergio Perez who was consistently lapping close to a second faster during parts of the race even though Perez wasn't able to close out the race due to team and driver mistakes.
   
     If Ferrari is going to turn this result into something other than a fluke of the weather they will need to push hard developing it over the next three weeks. The upcoming race in Shanghai will be a key test for the car, especially if it is a dry race. They have benefited from failures by other drivers and the weather to get where they are now. A good performance in Shanghai from Alonso will give the team greater confidence, but in truth the team needs to see a better race out of Fillipe Massa. As Massa stuggles, so does Ferrari. He needs to be able to not only turn in a good result, but show that he can match Alonso in pace even if the car isn't up to standards. Should Massa improve over the next three weeks and lodge a good result in China, Ferrari as a whole will have shown some good progress. They may not challenge the top three teams for a manufacturers championship but at least the season won't be a total disaster. Ferrari has many challenges ahead and little time to fix them. So was Malaysia a fluke or the true future of Ferrari? Only time will truly tell.